Changing Currents: Exploring energy system transformation through immersive futures

 ‘Business as usual’ for those of us in the energy transition movement is no longer enough. We, as a sector, need to think more creatively and expansively. Traditional formats for knowledge sharing such as research reports, panels, and lectures, can only take us so far. Games offer a form of experiential learning often absent from professional settings. In one study, the majority of adults who played a business simulation game had measurable retention of learning a year after the study. A similar study found that lectures and simulations had similar short term learning outcomes but only the simulation group retained knowledge over time.  

To achieve our learning objectives of shifting mindsets and building anticipatory capacity, we took inspiration from the world of wargaming. Wargames were first developed in 18th century Prussia to teach army officers military strategy. While they primarily depict military conflict, they can be viewed as tools to play out plausible scenarios in which there is adversarial conflict between two or more parties within a system. For organizations working in decarbonizing energy, and supporting a just transition, the work often feels adversarial, though the conflict we face is often ideological and economic rather than armed miliary struggles. However, the framework remains the same – how can we simulate real life scenarios and use them as a sandbox to test out strategic decision making and tactical responses? 

To better understand the points of tension in the energy system, particularly around the just transition on the African continent, we conducted extensive expert interviews and desk research to better understand the stakeholders, types of projects that would be contentious, and signals of change in the region. All of this went into creating a starting scenario (project Zephyr Wind) that was both fictional and feasible. The research fed into all of the game materials – from breaking news headlines based on current developments in politics and technology, to individual character roles that spanned the breadth of energy stakeholders.  

Starting with the framework of a wargame, we adapted this format to be better suited for our purposes. The result is more of a scenario-based immersion that leans heavily into role-playing, as the game serves the dual purpose of embodying a character and navigating an uncertain future. 

Embodying a character 

Changing Currents starts by giving players individual character cards. These describe the specific role the player will inhabit during the game, their individual goals, and team affiliation. Most decisions are made as a team so disparate players – a renewable energy developer and an offshore oil and gas company CEO - will have to find ways to cooperate and make a unified decision as the Private Sector team.  

Critical to the game is the component of roleplay and embodiment. Playing the role of a specific character and taking on their goals and affiliations is a very different feeling than speaking about a sector in the abstract. For example, rather than general investors, some players were specific types of investors and had to think deeply about the decisions they made through that lens. However, it is worth noting that there are risks and limitations associated with role playing, including perpetuating harmful stereotypes and bias. During the debrief, the teams discussed challenges with playing different roles and the assumptions they brought to the table. 

Many players expressed appreciation for playing a role very different than themselves. One player from the government team noted, “we were laughing as ourselves - we felt a lot of pressure and could understand why politicians could be tempted by bribes – we didn’t have a lot time, and then had to come up with a list of what we wouldn’t do, for example, no bribes. We didn’t want to increase our debt portfolio – we had to align ourselves before we could take action.”   

Another player highlighted that they “loved this game because it allowed me, as a campaigner, to stand outside of my element which was very difficult. It was hard but very helpful. Probably we need to change strategies and language in certain sections and approach.”  

Overall, the roleplay aspect helped players immerse themselves into the game and consider different perspectives within the energy system.  

 

Navigating an uncertain future

Our current context is changing so quickly and dramatically, it can be hard to keep up. Compounding crises, political shifts, and technological advances all impact the energy transition and must be factored into decision making. Fossil fuel industries have long used foresight tools like scenario planning to prepare for multiple possible futures. While the sustainability sector thinks about the future, we often neglect to do so in such a strategic and targeted way.  

Energy system actors need to build up anticipatory capacity to better respond to ongoing change. To simulate this in the game, we included the element of time. The game is played in four rounds, each round representing two years into the future. As each round begins, new developments are shared via “headlines from the future” that broadcast out to players. Time moves quickly in the game and players felt pressure to act. Players balanced the interests of project Zephyr Wind and what it could mean for the region with individual and team goals.   

This proved to be challenging. One player spoke for a group by sharing they felt overwhelmed by the speed and complexity of breaking news events. They emphasized that “the breaking news, as a government official, was too much. I am imagining a government official sitting down [with all this news] - seeing that was a new perspective.”